Interesting Buyer Trends in Chula Vista

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch the Market Action Index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. This is the state we have been in for some time now.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
Until very recently, we have been charting a drop in our MAI. We are now seeing an increase in buyer activity which is pushing those numbers up over 20 in some areas. Now remember, a HOT market is when the MAI indicator hits over 30.

The CHULA VISTA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 19. With several months of inventory available at the
current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice. Home sales have been exceeding new inventory for several weeks. Since this is a Buyer's market prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. However, as the supply and demand trends continue, the market
moves into the Seller's zone, and we are likely to see upward pressure on pricing.

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McMillin Realty's Weekly Market Update for Chula Vista

Why follow a Real Estate company's blog? Because of the great recipes and tips on how to clean your gutters?... NO! Because they are the area experts. Because when it comes to the market and real estate, they have the answers to all your questions. Because when it is time to BUY or SELL your home you should know who is the areas BEST. Demand it, expect it!

At McMillin Realty we have many tools available to our customers that can assist them with all their real estate needs. How do we know what your needs are? Well, we've been helping people just like you find and sell homes in San Diego and especially South County for 50 years now. It's a family tradition.

Attached to this blog is our weekly Market Update. It gives you current prices for homes on the market in Chula Vista combined and by individual zip. It also gives trends in pricing, current levels of supply and demand and a value metrics.

Just some quick observations... Eastlake, 91915, looks to be stable in median list price with week with no trend up or down. The same holds true for 91914, Rolling Hills Ranch, San Miguel Ranch, The Wood, The Gates, with an average list price of $527,311. However, buyer activity is up in that zip and days on market has stabilized. 91913, Otay Ranch, is seeing a slight downward pricing trend, however, days on market are also down - selling faster, and the buyer market has stabilized, although it is still a buyers market. In 91911, Sunbow, and areas west of 5, and 91910, Rancho Del Rey, the pricing trends are up.

What is the bottom line?... Looks like we are starting to see some healthy activity in our city. If you are asking yourself, "Is now a good time to buy?" I only have one answer for you.

NOW IS THE BEST TIME!!!

Below is the full Chula Vista Market Update Report - by Altos Research

Open publication - Free publishing - More otay ranch

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Quicker Recovery for New Homes Expected in 2011

In a community full of new homes, does this mean things are looking up for South County? Lets just say we are very optimistic.

In its latest real estate and economic forecast, the National Association of Realtors anticipates that sales of existing homes, after falling 4.8 percent in 2010, will rise 7.9 percent this year, to 5.3 million, and another 4.5 percent in 2012, to 5.53 million.

The median price of existing homes, meanwhile, rose 0.3 percent in 2010 after a 12.9 percent drop in 2009, and is expected to rise 0.5 percent this year, to $173,800, and another 2.4 percent in 2012, to $177,900.

Sales of new single-family homes are expected to rebound faster, rising 17.7 percent this year, to 374,000 sales, after a 15.5 percent drop in 2010, and then rising 51.1 percent in 2012, to 565,000 sales. In an earlier forecast, released last month, NAR anticipated that sales of new single-family homes would climb 20.8 percent in 2011 and 30.9 percent in 2012.

The new-home median price rose 2.2 percent in 2010 and is expected to climb 1.8 percent this year, to $224,700, and 1.9 percent in 2012, to $229,000.

NAR expects that 30-year-fixed mortgage rates will average 5.1 percent this year, up from 4.7 percent in 2010, and rise to 5.9 percent in 2012.

The group also forecasts the U.S. unemployment rate to fall from 9.7 percent in 2010 to 9.4 percent this year and 8.7 percent in 2012, while U.S. real gross domestic product is expected to dip from 2.8 percent in 2010 to 2.6 percent this year, rising to 3.2 percent in 2012.

See link below for the rest of this story...

Sharing Stream, Real-time Sharing, Trending Shares - ShareThis Stream

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Market Conditions for South County - Chula Vista Real Estate

Market conditions as we enter into February seem to be warming up a bit for our fortuitous buyers. This is really their market. Inventory is high, prices are at an all time low, and interest rates are historically low. For inventory under $400K we are even seeing multiple offers again (especially on our Short Sale and Bank owned properties).

The upper end market is still softening a bit. There are many factors that hamper the market in those areas. Stiffer mortgage restrictions on jumbo loans, state of the economy, and when the bulk of your move up market has lost their equity and/or their home to Short Sale or Foreclosure, the buyer pool is greatly diminished. We do, however, expect to see a healthy recovery in this market, it will just take more time.

Positive indicators is that activity is picking up in our area dramatically. Buyers are out there. First time homebuyers are increasing and will be a major contributor to our market in 2011. The South County can still boast fantastic amenities, outstanding schools, and great growth opportunities. That coupled with the inventory of fantastic homes and affordable prices, this is the destination of choice for many families, individuals and couples to settle down and call home.

Visit www.mcmillinrealty.com to find a home that suits your needs today. Anyone of their outstanding agents can help you!

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Chula Vista Market Statistics for the Week of Jan 24, 2011

In an ongoing effort to keep our market current with what is happening in our area, McMillin Realty has subscribed to Altos Research.

Altos is a powerful online tool that tracks the market conditions of individual areas. It will show current prices for homes on the market, trends in pricing, current levels of supply and demand, and value metrics.

What does that mean for you? Well, if you are a home owner, it means you have your finger on the pulse of the market, you know exactly where you stand with your investment, your home, your future. If you are a buyer, it means you are more educated in the area you wish to purchase. Is that an area that is trending up or down, are homes selling quickly, what type of offer should I make. Knowledge is power. At McMillin Realty we believe the more knowledge we give to our consumer the better decisions he or she will make and ultimately the happier the customer will be.

Here is the latest charts for the entire City of Chula Vista. For individual zip codes you can subscribe to our market summary reports right from this page.


The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA this week is $350,000. The 830 homes have been on the market for an average of 137 days.

Inventory has been tightening but days-on-market and the Market Action Index have been basically unchanged, not providing strong indication for market conditions.

PRICE
The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.

QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching pricing trends within the quartile segments. Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.


PRICE AND VALUE
The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


MARKET ACTION INDEX
Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market") because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

The CHULA VISTA market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 18. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.

The market has shown some evidence of slowing recently. Both prices and inventory levels are relatively unchanged in recent weeks. Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a leading indicator for price changes.

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McMillin Realty Still Going Strong in South County

As the first month of the year comes to an end McMillin Realty can report that all remains strong on the home front.

The company has been on a recruiting and hiring bonanza since early last year, and that trend has not diminished. They have also continued their South County image assault in Dream Homes Magazine for the second straight year, and now with an added piece in the Dream Villager, a publication that is distributed only to residence of La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar and Coronado. It is McMillin Realty's mission to change the perception of our beautiful city into one of abundance, luxury, fine homes, great schools, and extraordinary lifestyles.

McMillin has also started their movie commercials back up in the AMC's at Otay Ranch and Plaza Bonita, only this time it's a :60 sec loud trophy truck, Andy, Jessica and Scott talking racing, realty and growing up McMillin. I'd get there a little early to save a seat, grab some popcorn and check it out.

But what I think I will remember most about this year and McMillin Realty is....

NEW YARD SIGNS!!!

Very rarely does a company change their yard signs. It is costly to do, and once you have a look, you don't want to change it. Well, it was time, and with all the new agents joining the company this was as good a time as any. Have you seen the any new signs up yet? New to the sign, hummm, they are BLACK, REFLECTIVE, AND HAVE THE VIRAL LOGOS WHERE YOU CAN FIND MCMILLIN REALTY ON THE WEB! Too cool, welcome to the new millennium McMillin. JK We like them a lot.

This is going to be a GREAT year. I can tell already!!!

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30 Year Fixed Rate Still Under 5 - 23 Weeks in A Row

Today Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), which found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate fell again to break the survey’s all-time low; the 30-year FRM has been under 5 percent for 23 weeks in a row. The last time our market saw rates this low Harry S Truman was President of the United States, a first-class stamp cost $0.03 and unemployment was 5.3%. If some of you must ask, the year was 1951. Times are much different from those days, but one thing is the same, THE INTEREST RATE!

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac, notes, "September’s employment report held no big surprises to financial markets, allowing long-term bond yields and fix mortgage rates to continue to ease. As a result, both the 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates hit all-time record lows for the third consecutive week."

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.19 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending October 14, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.27 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.92 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged a record low of 3.62 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.72 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.37 percent.

Have I lost you yet? Basically we are at record lows for interest rates, and when we mean low, we really mean LOW! Like history making low. How has this affected our market? Experts believe the low interest rates are a good part of the increase in pending sales over the last couple of months. Our inventory is up, prices are down, recovery may be slow but it is here, and interest rates are LOW.

"Historically low rates have spurred yet another refinancing wave. Conventional mortgage applications for refinance jumped 24 percent over the week of October 8th to the strongest pace since mid-April 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. By refinancing into this week’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average homeowner could save over $230 a month in principal and interest payments on a $200,000 loan balance."

So in a nutshell, buying a home, or just holding on to the one you have, now is a great time.

excerpts from RealtyTimes.com

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